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Advertising Intelligence

Keep your audiences.
Add a weekly timing signal.

The thermodynamics-based Dry Skin Index (DSI) models indoor drying stress from outdoor weather. Use its daily forecast to help decide where and when to focus the campaigns your agency already runs.

Explore forecast products Explore a sample brief

The sample search-interest brief is historical. The current search outlooks remain under internal review. See how an AI assistant can use released forecasts.

Your audiencesKeep your agency’s existing strategy.

Our weekly signalsAdd market context for skincare and humidifiers.

Your campaign resultsEvaluate acquisition cost, orders and ROAS.

A sample agency brief

From drying stress to search interest.

Two views of category attention. One practical starting point for your agency’s market planning.

Historical example

Market signals · January 12–18, 2025

Six illustrative markets · modeled search interest · not a current forecast

Dry-skin search-interest example
MarketExpected search interestRelative to the market’s historical averageEnvironmental contributionRelative to typical conditions for that week
New York1.37×+17.1%
Chicago1.45×+15.8%
Minneapolis-St. Paul1.55×+19.2%
Houston1.31×+9.0%
Los Angeles1.41×+23.0%
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale1.06×+1.5%

Expected interest includes seasonal patterns. A value of 1.50× means a predicted search index 50% above that market’s historical average.

Environmental contribution compares modeled interest with typical environmental conditions for the same market and week. It is already reflected in expected interest; do not add the two.

These estimates describe relative search interest, not search counts, sales lift or suggested budget changes. Markets are shown for geographic variety, not ranked by opportunity.

See the historical fit

Predicted interest alongside observed searches.

Dry-skin searches · Chicago · October 2024–March 2025

PredictedObserved
050100150200Oct 6Nov 10Dec 15Jan 19Feb 23Mar 30

Each market’s historical average = 100 (dashed line). This is an archived retrospective reconstruction using completed environmental observations, not forecasts issued at the time. The model was fitted before the displayed period; this selected chart does not establish future accuracy or campaign performance.

View weekly chart values
Week beginningPredictedObserved
2024-10-0692.184.8
2024-10-13103.699.5
2024-10-20103.2101.4
2024-10-2795.3103.2
2024-11-0388.492.2
2024-11-1092.588.5
2024-11-1797.992.2
2024-11-24118.7129.0
2024-12-01142.5164.0
2024-12-08140.5153.0
2024-12-15126.2130.9
2024-12-22111.7123.5
2024-12-29119.6118.0
2025-01-05141.2147.4
2025-01-12144.7141.9
2025-01-19157.3160.4
2025-01-26145.7129.0
2025-02-02115.8106.9
2025-02-09134.3118.0
2025-02-16156.3153.0
2025-02-23136.8127.2
2025-03-02108.1123.5
2025-03-09103.3108.7
2025-03-16105.2110.6
2025-03-23105.1110.6
2025-03-3099.4106.9

Built for your agency

A weekly brief. A usable spreadsheet.
Your campaigns, informed by local context.

Agree the markets and reporting period, then review timing and geographic emphasis alongside inventory, media costs and campaign history. Your agency manages audiences, creative and budgets.

Proposed pilot scope

The historical candidate set includes 49 dry-skin markets and 43 humidifier markets. Current coverage and delivery are confirmed before a pilot.

For skincare brands, dry-skin interest provides messaging context; it is not a moisturizer-demand forecast.

Discuss a market-signal pilot

Historical context

See how indoor drying stresses change across markets and seasons.

Historical comparisons help put a campaign period in context: how did environmental conditions differ from last year? Explore this supporting example alongside the weekly signal offering.

Dry Skin Index (DSI) describes modeled indoor drying stress on a 0–10 scale. This historical view is not today’s forecast.

Loading weekly DSI map…

Historical example · Black Friday

Before Black Friday, where were the highest indoor drying stresses on skin?

Compare reconstructed five-day averages to see how metro priorities changed across three seasons.

Reviewed historical reconstruction — not an issued forecast. Rankings use completed local calculations for 2025, 2024, and 2023.

Reconstruction window: Five complete days before Black Friday

Weather: Historical environmental data

Audience: Total metro population

Excess-stress threshold: DSI 5

Compare reconstructed years

Showing the five complete days before Black Friday 2025

Where dermal drying stresses were highest

Population-weighted five-day mean DSI · 0–10 scale

Top 50
  1. 1Fairbanks8.29
  2. 2Denver-Aurora-Lakewood7.08
  3. 3Boulder7.06
  4. 4Fort Collins6.98
  5. 5Cheyenne6.93
  6. 6Greeley6.87
  7. 7Casper6.80
  8. 8Colorado Springs6.76
  9. 9Grand Forks6.69
  10. 10Anchorage6.65
  11. 11Fargo6.63
  12. 12Carson City6.52
  13. 13Bismarck6.51
  14. 14Idaho Falls6.51
  15. 15Salt Lake City6.50
  16. 16Pocatello6.48
  17. 17Reno6.46
  18. 18Rapid City6.46
  19. 19Logan6.44
  20. 20Provo-Orem6.43
  21. 21Ogden-Clearfield6.40
  22. 22Grand Junction6.39
  23. 23Pueblo6.39
  24. 24St. Cloud6.31
  25. 25Twin Falls6.24
  26. 26Sioux Falls6.19
  27. 27Missoula6.18
  28. 28Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington6.15
  29. 29Duluth6.15
  30. 30Billings6.13
  31. 31Madison6.13
  32. 32Santa Fe6.10
  33. 33Farmington6.09
  34. 34Great Falls6.08
  35. 35Albuquerque6.07
  36. 36Grand Island6.04
  37. 37Mankato6.02
  38. 38Chicago-Naperville-Elgin6.02
  39. 39Lincoln6.01
  40. 40Boise City6.00
  41. 41Eau Claire6.00
  42. 42Rochester6.00
  43. 43Milwaukee-Waukesha5.99
  44. 44Wausau-Weston5.98
  45. 45Champaign-Urbana5.98
  46. 46Lafayette-West Lafayette5.96
  47. 47Janesville-Beloit5.96
  48. 48Sioux City5.96
  49. 49Oshkosh-Neenah5.96
  50. 50St. George5.96

Population-weighted drying stress

Five-day average · million person–DSI points above 5

Top 50
  1. 1Chicago-Naperville-Elgin9.76
  2. 2New York-Newark-Jersey City6.65
  3. 3Denver-Aurora-Lakewood6.19
  4. 4Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington4.26
  5. 5Washington-Arlington-Alexandria3.50
  6. 6Detroit-Warren-Dearborn3.04
  7. 7Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington2.80
  8. 8Boston-Cambridge-Newton2.60
  9. 9Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson2.00
  10. 10Salt Lake City1.89
  11. 11St. Louis1.88
  12. 12Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise1.86
  13. 13Columbus1.77
  14. 14Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta1.60
  15. 15Milwaukee-Waukesha1.58
  16. 16Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington1.53
  17. 17Cincinnati1.48
  18. 18Pittsburgh1.43
  19. 19Kansas City1.35
  20. 20Colorado Springs1.34
  21. 21Baltimore-Columbia-Towson1.16
  22. 22Provo-Orem1.00
  23. 23Albuquerque0.98
  24. 24Omaha-Council Bluffs0.91
  25. 25Ogden-Clearfield0.91
  26. 26Reno0.81
  27. 27Boise City0.79
  28. 28Grand Rapids-Kentwood0.79
  29. 29Oklahoma City0.79
  30. 30Madison0.77
  31. 31Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia0.74
  32. 32Fort Collins0.72
  33. 33Dayton-Kettering0.72
  34. 34Providence-Warwick0.70
  35. 35Boulder0.68
  36. 36Anchorage0.66
  37. 37Des Moines-West Des Moines0.66
  38. 38El Paso0.66
  39. 39Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario0.64
  40. 40Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin0.64
  41. 41Greeley0.63
  42. 42Louisville/Jefferson County0.60
  43. 43Albany-Schenectady-Troy0.54
  44. 44Worcester0.53
  45. 45Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler0.50
  46. 46Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown0.48
  47. 47Toledo0.48
  48. 48Rochester0.47
  49. 49Raleigh-Cary0.45
  50. 50Buffalo-Cheektowaga0.45

Reviewed historical reconstruction · 371 consistently eligible metros · 100% included-population coverage · excess-stress threshold DSI 5

What a media planner should notice

  • Chicago ranks first for population-weighted drying stress above DSI 5 in all three reconstructed years. New York, Denver, and Minneapolis remain prominent, but their order changes.
  • The top 25 is stable enough to plan around, but not fixed: 21 markets carry over in each adjacent-year comparison.
  • Using the prior year's top 25 would leave 3.8% of 2024 and 4.3% of 2025 population-weighted drying stress above DSI 5 outside the selected markets.
  • Scale and intensity answer different questions. In 2025, New York has 3.54 times St. Louis's population-weighted drying stress above DSI 5, while St. Louis has 1.98 times the average excess DSI per resident.
  • Low intensity can identify where not to lead with drying-stress creative. In 2025, 33 metros had no modeled excess above DSI 5; Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Honolulu were at zero, while Los Angeles was nearly zero. This is a campaign-window signal, not a permanent no-buy list.
  • Media prices are not included in these rankings. Adding metro CPM or CPC estimates can identify where media can most efficiently reach populations in markets with elevated drying stress.
Understanding the rankings

Stress level: average modeled indoor drying stress for each market over the five-day comparison period, shown on the 0–10 DSI scale.

Population-weighted drying stress: a comparative measure combining elevated drying stress and market population. Values are five-day averages expressed in million person–DSI points above 5.

A larger value indicates greater population-weighted drying stress during the comparison period. It is not a count of people, a measurement of individual skin condition, or a prediction of purchases.

Historical estimates are prepared using Dermal Vectors environmental modeling. The comparison includes 371 consistently eligible metro areas.

Plan a campaign brief

Your marketing contractor can combine these findings with audience, media-cost, and campaign information to design a test. Historical reconstructions support early planning; forecasts inform decisions closer to the event.

Keep your audiences. Add market-timing intelligence.

Start with selected supported markets and a weekly brief or spreadsheet. Your agency manages campaigns and measures performance.

See pilot access